Brady’s Decision To Leave Patriots Perks Up Action-Starved Sportsbooks

Quarterback Tom Brady's decision to leave the New England Patriots after 20 seasons gave sportsbooks a jolt with some U.S.-based action.
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Chris Altruda was a sportswriter with ESPN, The Associated Press, and STATS for more than two decades before joining Better Collective in 2019. When not crunching iGaming and casino revenue figures, he is usually listening to Iron Maiden or exploring Chicago neighborhoods. His Twitter handle is @AlTruda73 and can be reached via email at [email protected]

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NFL free agency just became much more interesting with Tom Brady announcing Tuesday via Instagram he would not be returning to the New England Patriots, and sports betting operators took immediate notice due to the lack of action because of the coronavirus.

The six-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback and four-time Super Bowl MVP does not lack for options to continue his career after 20 seasons with the Patriots, but oddsmakers have a clear early frontrunner in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. FOX Bet has listed the Bucs as -175 favorites to land Brady, while FanDuel is offering a steeper -200 on the 42-year-old suiting up for the NFC South team in 2020, up from a previous -135.

Tampa Bay became a popular option after the Buccaneers opted not to place a franchise tag on quarterback Jameis Winston on Monday. The No. 1 overall pick of the 2015 draft who had five uneven seasons, Winston failed to lead Tampa Bay to a playoff appearance while throwing for 121 touchdowns and 88 interceptions, including an NFL-worst 30 picks in 2019.

While there is excitement over something U.S.-based to bet on, the legal action on Brady will largely be restricted to bettors in states where online betting is operational.

Brady threw for 4,057 yards and 24 touchdowns with only eight interceptions in leading New England to the AFC East title last season, but his 60.8 completion percentage was his lowest since 2013. The Patriots lost 20-13 to Tennessee in the wild-card round, and Brady’s last pass was a defeat-sealing pick-six interception in the final minute.

Brady is second all-time with 74,571 passing yards and 541 touchdowns, trailing New Orleans Saints quarterback and fellow 40-something Drew Brees in both categories.

Other potential destinations and NFL futures

The Los Angeles Chargers, also in the market for a quarterback with Philip Rivers also making the decision to test the free agent market, are a consensus second choice at +170 for FanDuel and +250 for FOX Bet. After that, the two books diverge, with FanDuel listing Miami as a third option at +750 while FOX Bet has Las Vegas and Indianapolis joint third choices at +500.

FanDuel posts the Raiders, who are moving to Sin City from Oakland for the 2020 season, as a +1500 option for Brady and the Colts further back at +3400. FOX Bet has Miami fifth among its options at +900. FanDuel also has the 49ers — who acquired Brady’s then-backup Jimmy Garoppolo in 2017 and lost to Kansas City in Super Bowl LIV last month — as a potential option at +1900.

FanDuel also has Brady retiring as an option still on the board, though it is the longshot of the bunch at +3900.

While DraftKings did not offer odds on Brady’s potential landing spot, it did take the 2020 win totals for the four AFC East teams off the board. The Buccaneers currently have an over/under of eight wins at -110, while the Chargers and Raiders both have an over/under of seven wins, also at -110.

For Super Bowl LV futures, the Patriots currently range from +1400 to +2000 at various sportsbooks, with DraftKings still bullish on New England and both PointsBet — which had been offering the Pats at +1500 but quickly dropped them to +2000 after the Instagram post — and FOX Bet less so. FanDuel hit the middle spot between the three other books, offering +1700 on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl.

William Hill updated its Super Bowl odds and dropped the Patriots to +2000, a distant third in the AFC behind defending champion Kansas City (+400) and Baltimore (+650) and ninth among all NFL teams.

Photo by Greg M. Cooper / USA Today Sports

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