Are Favored Charlo Brothers The Right Betting Side On Boxing’s Literal ‘Twin Bill’?

Jermall and Jermell are both favored Saturday, but bettors might find value on an underdog — or a "Charlay"
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Kevin and Terrie Charlo didn’t make it easy for their sons to carve out individual identities. When their identical twin boys were born one minute apart on May 19, 1990, the Charlos named the older son Jermall and the younger son Jermell. The names, just like the faces and, as it would turn out, the boxing capabilities, were almost indistinguishable.

For many boxing fans, they are simply “the Charlos,” observers having given up on remembering which one is the middleweight and which is the junior middleweight, which one is undefeated and which has a single loss, which one has tattoos across his arms, shoulders, and chest and which is inked on the arms, shoulders, and neck.

And for their first experience as boxing pay-per-view headliners, this Saturday, Sept. 26, at an audience-free Mohegan Sun Arena in Connecticut, they are essentially being presented as a package deal.

Middleweight Jermall headlines the first half of the PPV in, on paper, the toughest fight of his career, vs. Ukraine’s Sergey Derevyanchenko.

Junior middleweight Jermell fights in the main event of the second half of the PPV, against upset-minded Dominican Jeison Rosario.

But it’s the combination of both Charlos in dangerous fights, along with four intriguing undercard matchups, that makes this a viable pay-per-view offering.

For those engaging in sports betting on this event, however, it’s important to know which Charlo is which and how they’re each matched on Saturday, rather than just betting on a Charlo. Jermall is a small favorite. Jermell is a big favorite. And if you believe in them both, a Charlo parlay — the “Charlay,” if you will — is the way to get plus money on your wager.

Jermall vs. Derevyanchenko: The close call

Jermall Charlo has a record of 30-0 (22 KOs) and, since an impressive 2016 campaign that saw him defeat Austin Trout and Julian Williams, has faced mediocre opposition and is in search of a signature win. Derevyanchenko, who is better than his 13-2 (10 KOs) record makes him sound, presents that opportunity. In the past two years, Derevyanchenko has lost disputed decisions to two of the sport’s best fighters, Gennadiy Golovkin and Daniel Jacobs.

If Charlo beats him convincingly, he’ll be making a serious statement.

The sportsbooks recognize Derevyanchenko as a legit challenge. FOX Bet sees the fight the closest, with Jermall a slim -154 favorite (risk $154 to win $100) and Derevyanchenko a +110 underdog, with a draw at +1600. Other books have it a tad wider: William Hill has the best payout on Derevyanchenko at +145, while DraftKings goes -177/+140, FanDuel -170/+135, and BetMGM -164/+125. You can get up to 18/1 on the draw.

And interestingly, the prices aren’t much different betting “two-way” (with the bet returned in the case of a draw) instead of “three-way.” It’s up to each bettor whether to pay a tiny bit more in exchange for slightly less risk, but at some sportsbooks, it’s not a very tough decision. At FanDuel, for example, the two-way price on Charlo is -172 instead of -170, and for Derevyanchenko it’s +134 instead of +135.

It’s not easy to pick a side here, but Charlo backers can reasonably convince themselves that the version of Golovkin who Derevyanchenko nearly upset was a far cry from prime “GGG.” The Ukrainian is also a slow starter, having been dropped in the first round by both Jacobs and Golovkin before rallying back. At the FanDuel price of -154, Jermall appears to have value.

Jermell vs. Rosario: Lion vs. ’dog

The headliner of the post-intermission portion of the card sees a lot more daylight between the boxers. Jermell Charlo comes in at 33-1 (17 KOs), having avenged by KO last December his only defeat, a controversial decision to Tony Harrison in 2018. Like his brother, he has outpointed Trout, but he’s also beaten such notables as Erickson Lubin (by first-round KO), Vanes Martirosyan, and Gabriel Rosado. He’s the more proven of the two twins, even if he has one blemish on his record to show for it.

And Rosario is the less proven of the two Charlo oppponents. At 20-1-1 (14 KOs), he’s riding high off an upset KO of Julian Williams in January, but nobody else on his resume fights at a championship level and a 2017 loss to Nathaniel Gallimore is worrying. Still, he’s a dangerous puncher, and Rosario enters Saturday night unbeaten in his last nine.

If you like the upset, FanDuel is the place to bet it, with Rosario returning +350 (or “only” +340 in the two-way market). The underdog is as low as +275 elsewhere. For those looking to bet on Jermell Charlo, William Hill has the best price at -380, while most other bookmakers have the younger twin at about -400. The draw is as high as +2200 at BetMGM.

Again, it’s not obvious where the value is here. But based on Jermell having let a few fights go to the scorecards close and on the possibility that Rosario is just beginning to find his stride at age 25, a small wager on that +350 payout has some appeal.

How about that Charlay?

Parlays are typically a bookmaker’s best friend, but they open up a road here to win more than you’re risking if you believe in the Charlo twins.

The DFS giants are not the place to go to get your Charlay on; DraftKings has it at -108, FanDuel at -115. You’ll get a better return at BetMGM and William Hill, both of which pay +101. But the most bang for your buck comes at FOX Bet, where the Charlay comes out to +106.

In the final 24-48 hours before the fights, we might see some of the sportsbooks open up additional markets, but as of this writing, the options are limited — except at William Hill. That’s the one book that had props posted by midweek.

In Jermall vs. Derevyanchenko, under 10½ rounds pays +250 and over 10½ is priced at -350, or you can bet the fight to go the full 12-round distance at -250 or not go 12 at +175. Charlo by decision (either an early technical decision or after the full 12) pays a mere +110, while Charlo by KO, TKO, or DQ is worth a hefty +450. Derevyanchenko points is +240, and Derevyanchenko by KO/TKO/DQ is a +500 longshot.

For the Jermell vs. Rosario showdown, the round prop is set at 9½, with -138 juice on the under and even money on the over. Charlo by KO/TKO/DQ is -138, Charlo by decision is +260, Rosario by KO/TKO/DQ is +500, and Rosario on points is priced at +900.

Then there’s the ultimate Charlay: both Charlo brothers to win by knockout. Instead of roughly even money on a standard Charlay, this prop on power punching pays +850.

And if you bet on that and one Charlo gets a KO and the other doesn’t, you’ll always remember which Charlo is which.

Photo by Sarah Stier / USA Today Sports

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