First-Round NBA Playoff Bets We Love

It’s not always about who wins, but how many games it takes them
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Mike Seely has written about horse racing for The Daily Racing Form and America’s Best Racing, and has contributed pieces on a multitude of topics including casinos to The New York Times and Los Angeles Times, among other publications. He can be reached on Twitter (@mdseely) or via email at [email protected].

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With the NBA’s play-in tournament coming to a close Friday night, the field for the playoffs — which start Saturday — is almost set. And for sports bettors, these best-of-seven, first-round series aren’t simply about which team prevails, but in how many games and with which players thriving (or struggling).

To this end, US Bets has assembled an “expert” panel of armchair prognosticators from our staff to reveal their favorite first-round wagers. Remember to take these touts with multiple granules of talcum powder, and to sample several sportsbooks before determining which wagers offer the best bang for your buck.

76ers vs. Raptors, Tobias Harris under 17.2 ppg in series (-115, DraftKings)

The number of games Tobias Harris has played since James Harden became his teammate on the Philadelphia 76ers: 24. 

The number of times Harris has scored more than 17.2 points: Six.

OK, sure, in the NBA playoffs, starters play more than normal. But in Harris’ case, “more than normal” in Philly’s first-round playoff series against the Toronto Raptors will probably be, what, 36 minutes? Thirty-eight? He’s already averaging 35.8 minutes a game this season.

Furthermore, the Raptors and 76ers have played twice since the Harden trade. Harris has scored 13 points combined in those two matchups on 5-17 shooting from the field. Anything can happen, but on paper, the under at DraftKings on Harris averaging 17.2 points per game during the series seems entirely too good to be true — even at -115. 

— Jeff Edelstein

Bucks vs. Bulls, series ends in under 5.5 games (-165, BetMGM)

My initial plan was to direct everyone’s attention to Milwaukee -2.5 games in the series (meaning Bucks win either 4-0 or 4-1), which I found at various prices between -250 and -170 — the latter of which certainly has value. But when I went to check BetMGM’s series pricing, I saw the book had that particular prop at -190 … and also had the series to go under 5.5 games at -165! 

Someone is asleep at the wheel over there. Let’s see: I could risk $190 to win $100 on the Bucks winning in either four or five games, or I could risk $165 to win $100 on either team ending the series inside of five games. Which door should I choose?

Granted, Chicago prevailing in four or five (or six or seven) games is an extreme longshot, but if, hypothetically, Giannis Antetokounmpo gets injured during Game 1, you’re covered just in case the Bulls dominate from there. And you’re getting a better price anyway.

But barring a balance-shifting injury, this series is a mismatch in Milwaukee’s favor. There’s a reason the Bucks maneuvered their way into the 3-seed on the regular season’s final day. They swept the four-game season series against the Bulls, including winning the last two games by 28 and 21 points. The best shot at hanging with the Bucks is to bomb them from 3-point land, but the Bulls happen to be dead last in the league in trey attempts with 28.8 per game — the only team in the NBA under 30 this season. 

Without Lonzo Ball, the Bulls have proven to be an ordinary team, and an ordinary team isn’t winning two games against the defending champs.

— Eric Raskin

Grizzlies 4-2 series winner over Timberwolves (+420, FanDuel)

Smart money has Memphis, the West’s surprising second seed, beating Minnesota in either five or seven games, the logic being that teams are likeliest to close out playoff opponents on their home floor. But Memphis has played with a chip on its shoulder all season, which would make it wholly unsurprising if, after splitting the first four games (as these two energetic young teams did during the regular season), the Grizzlies took Game 5 in Memphis before marching into Minneapolis and claiming the series win in a hostile environment.

Memphis is deep, long, fast, fresh-legged, and fearless, but it lacks the sort of playoff pedigree to crack the top tier of teams expected to win the NBA Finals. (The Grizzlies’ odds to win it all were 14/1 on Thursday, trailing those of Phoenix, Milwaukee, Boston, Brooklyn, Golden State, and Miami.) That inexperience is what will find them failing to overcome the Timberwolves in five, but a signature win in Game 6 will nevertheless give them the confidence they need to make a deep postseason run.

— Mike Seely

Nets vs. Celtics, Arb betting series winner/Eastern Conference champ

This much-hyped series is being billed by some as the Eastern Conference finals in the opening round of the playoffs. After all, the Nets opened the season as the prohibitive favorite to win the NBA championship, while the Celtics went on a midseason tear, at one point winning 22 of 25 games. 

At Caesars Sportsbook, the Nets (+400) are the second choice to win the East, while the Celtics are pegged as the third choice at +420.

Hobbled by injury and drama on multiple fronts, the Nets suffered a season-high 10-game losing streak before the All-Star Game, then experienced a four-game skid in early March. The extended stretch without the Big Three, then the subsequent trade of James Harden to the Sixers for a package led by Ben Simmons, pushed the Nets to the seventh seed. But now megastars Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving are back to full strength and Simmons appears closer to making his Nets debut, perhaps as early as Game 3 of the series.

Exposure on the Nets in the futures market has created an arbitrage opportunity in Round 1 if you think that both teams have a legitimate shot at making it out of the East. Although the Celtics are a -145 favorite to win the series, a handful of books give the Nets a better chance to represent the conference in the NBA Finals. An arb bettor could place $100 on the Nets to eliminate the Celtics at +125, then take Boston to make the NBA Finals, a wager that could return at least 4x your investment. 

Remember to shop around for the best price, but FanDuel listed the Celtics at +480 to capture the East earlier this week, a number that has since been bet down to +350.

You could also take it one step further: Bet the Celtics to win the series, then the Nets to win the NBA title. Three of the four top choices at BetMGM to win the league come from the East: Bucks (+500), Celtics (+750), and Nets (+800), with the Suns as the heavy favorite at +260. 

Regardless of the outcome, a grueling seven-game series could have lasting effects. The Bucks, a massive -1100 favorite over the Bulls in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals, lurk in the next round.

— Matt Rybaltowski

Warriors vs. Nuggets, Nikola Jokic under 1.6 made 3s per game (-150, DraftKings) 

Nikola Jokic is a joy to watch, and it should be a treat to see the elite center try to carry the Nuggets against a Golden State Warriors team with at least three future Hall of Famers on the roster. The big man from Serbia is a magical passer and snags rebounds with ease. He’s no scoring slouch either, averaging 27.1 points per game on 58% shooting. 

While Jokic does many things well, he isn’t the world’s best 3-point shooter. Now, Jokic isn’t a woeful marksman — he’s made 34.5% of 3-point shots in his career — but other areas of his game are more dangerous. An average shooting history coupled with a sore wrist makes me love taking Jokic to average under 1.6 made 3s per game in Denver’s series with Golden State, and the prop can be found at -150 at DraftKings. 

Since Feb. 27, Jokic has played 20 games and he hasn’t made a single 3-pointer in 13 of them. He’s made multiple 3-pointers only three times during that span, and he’s averaged 0.55 3-pointers since Feb. 27. In four of the 20 games, Jokic didn’t even attempt a 3-point shot. 

Time off before the series could certainly help Jokic’s wrist heal, and there’s some risk in taking anybody to make fewer than 1.6 3-pointers per game for an entire series (one hot shooting night could doom the bet). But I’ll gladly play the recent percentages and fade Jokic from beyond the arc. 

— Bennett Conlin

Photo: Kyle Terada/USA TODAY

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