Line It Up: Chargers-Raiders And The Weirdest Scenario In Football’s Weirdest Week

Your early look at NFL Week 18 includes consensus lines, teaser options, and more
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Eric is a veteran writer, editor, and podcaster in the sports and gaming industries. He was the editor-in-chief of the poker magazine All In for nearly a decade, is the author of the book The Moneymaker Effect, and has contributed to such outlets as ESPN.com, Grantland.com, and Playboy. Contact Eric at [email protected].

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The first-ever NFL Week 18, which concludes the first-ever 17-game NFL season, contains a fairly standard mix of meaningless (for postseason purposes, anyway) games, critical win-and-you’re-in showdowns, and semi-consequential contests landing somewhere in between.

There are five games that could impact who makes the playoffs, eight others that can at least impact seeding, two “meaningless” games pairing eliminated teams, and one “meaningless” game pitting a team that has clinched a first-round bye against a team already crossed off.

Early in the season, there’s little need to include motivation in your calculation before wagering. But in Week 18, motivation is the first input in any formula.

And there’s a scenario in which the very last game of the season, the one in which two teams with maximum motivation, two divisional rivals potentially battling for a single playoff spot, could find themselves with the most mind-melting motivation imaginable:

This ridiculous scenario starts with a massive “if,” as the Jaguars are between +650 (DraftKings, BetMGM, Barstool) and +750 (Caesars) to defeat the Colts. But stranger things have happened — this very season, with this very same Jacksonville team. They were as high as +825 on the moneyline at BetMGM when they shocked the Bills 9-6 on Nov. 7, winning despite not scoring a touchdown.

Is it likely that this disaster of a Jags team, nosediving toward a second straight No. 1 overall draft pick, will beat a Colts team that can clinch a playoff berth with a victory? Certainly not. But improbable and impossible are a fair distance apart, as every gambler knows.

Here’s the question for sports bettors: Is there value in wagering that the Sunday night season-capping game between the Raiders and Chargers ends in a tie?

The prop isn’t easy to find in some sportsbook apps. Many don’t offer it, and in most that do, you have to hunt around for the “moneyline 3-way” market, which lets you bet on either team to win outright or bet on a tie.

And, unfortunately, the sportsbooks that offer it extend an absolute sucker price.

Through 17 weeks of NFL play — 256 games — there has been exactly one tie (Steelers-Lions on Nov. 14). There was one tie in 2020, one in 2019, two in 2018, zero in 2017, two in 2016, none in 2015, one in 2014, and so on. The NFL consistently produces one tie per 256 games. So, true odds on a tie, under normal circumstances, should be +25500.

But, hey, sportsbooks are in it to make a profit. They need to charge a vig. So maybe you’d expect to find a tie priced at +15000. Or perhaps a mere +10000.

You wouldn’t expect to find it at just +1800. Yes, 18/1, as if a tie happens almost every week. But that’s how a tie in Chargers-Raiders is priced at PointsBet. Well, maybe it’s just because of the unusual circumstances in this particular game, ya figure, right? Nope. PointsBet had a tie in this past Monday night’s Steelers-Browns game at +1700.

As it turns out, that’s a little low for the industry — DraftKings had a draw in the same Monday night game at +2800. And DK has that same 28/1 price on a Chargers-Raiders tie. It’s still a ripoff. DK’s more customer-friendly price would only offer value if nine or 10 games per season ended in ties.

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A few of the Week 18 moneylines at DraftKings, including draw odds

Here’s the most laughable part about PointsBet’s +1800 price on a Raiders-Chargers tie: The book’s “yes” on “Will there be overtime?” is priced at +1700!

There’s only one semi-intelligent way to bet this: a parlay of the Jags to beat the Colts and a Raiders-Chargers tie. At DraftKings — which doesn’t have the best Jags ML price — that would pay +21650. Shop around; you might be able to find 250/1 somewhere.

Let’s be realistic: The scenario suggested in the Adam Beasley tweet above, the one that sees the coaches and players from both teams agree not to score so both can be assured playoff spots, will never happen (no matter how inclined analytics-minded Chargers coach Brandon Staley is to make the kneel deal). Especially because, due to tiebreaker scenarios, if the Colts lose and the Steelers lose to the Ravens, the Raiders could lose to L.A. and snag the seventh seed anyway.

However, if the Colts lose and the Steelers win, both the Chargers and Raiders would likely employ end-game strategies that emphasize not losing. If a team is down by 7 and scores a touchdown in the waning moments, the coach won’t go for 2; he’ll play for overtime. Once in overtime, fourth-down decisions will be exceedingly conservative. You might even see the coaches winking at each other from across the field during those extra 10 minutes as they repeatedly send their punters into battle.

And if you happen to bet that parlay of Jags win and Chargers-Raiders tie and it cashes at more than 200/1? Kissing your sister never felt so good.

(There’s a sentence that could end my career if taken out of context.)

It promises to be a wacky Week 18. Let’s look ahead to the lines and assorted betting odds and ends for the final weekend of the NFL regular season.

The consensus lines

Most lines vary by half a point in either direction, with slightly different vigs from book to book, so it’s always advisable to price-shop at all the available mobile sportsbooks in your state. But here are the consensus (most commonly found) spreads for each of the 16 games in Week 18:

  • Chiefs (-10) at Broncos
  • Cowboys (-7) at Eagles
  • Bengals at Browns (-2)
  • Packers (-2.5) at Lions
  • Bears at Vikings (-2.5)
  • Washington (-6.5) at Giants
  • Colts (-15.5) at Jaguars
  • Steelers at Ravens (-3.5)
  • Titans (-10.5) at Texans
  • Saints (-4.5) at Falcons
  • Jets at Bills (-17)
  • 49ers at Rams (-5)
  • Patriots (-6.5) at Dolphins
  • Seahawks at Cardinals (-6.5)
  • Panthers at Buccaneers (-8)
  • Chargers (-2.5) at Raiders

Line move to watch

It would appear the sportsbooks have figured out who’s trying to win and who isn’t. There was already a major shift from Monday to Tuesday on Cowboys-Eagles, from Dallas -3 to Dallas -7. The Eagles are “talking through” resting their starters now that they’ve clinched a wild card spot and don’t have a clear seeding preference.

Which line could still move? Through the combination of nobody in their right mind wanting to bet on the Giants and the Washington players being fired up to win their final game before becoming the Groundhogs, that other NFC East line might still have a point or two of movement left in it.

Intriguing moneyline underdogs to consider

Bronze medal: Falcons +175 (FOX Bet) vs. Saints. It’s tempting to bet on Gardner Minshew to lead the Eagles (+250) past the Cowboys or on the Texans (+420) to spoil the Titans’ bye-week plans. But a more realistic scenario sees the Saints checking out the scoreboard, seeing San Francisco losing to the Rams, knowing they can steal a playoff spot by beating the Falcons … and failing to get the job done.

Silver medal: Steelers +170 (BetMGM) at Ravens. Whoever wins has a chance at making the postseason, provided the Jags upset the Colts. Pittsburgh’s path is a little less absurd, as Baltimore needs not only an Indy loss, but also losses by the Dolphins and Chargers. Whatever the minimal playoff implications, +170 is a worthwhile price on Ben Roethlisberger in his final regular-season game.

Gold medal: Jets +900 (FOX Bet) at Bills. It’s not that we think the Jets will win. But 9/1?! Their offense isn’t bad. Zach Wilson is showing glimpses. They almost upset the Bucs last week. And the Bills did lose to the Jags a couple of months ago. This price is just a little too tempting.

Textbook teaser candidates

Fans of the three-team (or more) teaser know what to look for: favorites of 6 or more who become very safe bets if you reduce the spread by about a touchdown. Here are this week’s options that fit the bill:

  • Chiefs: Can tease down to -4 or -3 Saturday against the beaten-down Broncos.
  • Washington: Can tease down to -0.5 or +0.5 against Joe Judge’s shrinking Giants.
  • Colts: Can tease down to -9.5 or -8.5 as they try to clinch against the two-win Jags.
  • Titans: Can tease down to -4.5 or -3.5 seeking the AFC’s top seed against the Texans.
  • Bills: Can tease down to -11 or -10 in pursuit of the AFC East title hosting the Jets.
  • Patriots: Can tease down to -0.5 or +0.5 against the freshly eliminated Dolphins.
  • Cardinals: Can tease down to -0.5 or +0.5 hosting the disappointing Seahawks.
  • Buccaneers: Can tease down to -2 or -1 against the flailing Panthers.

Pick three (or more), pick 6 points or 7 (or 6.5), and let the sweating of a +140 or so return begin. Honestly, all of the above feel fairly safe, except maybe the Bills, since even a 7-point tease still leaves them needing to cover double digits. But have at it with the others. Maybe this is the week to try a six-team tease that pays +600. (For a very small percentage of your betting bankroll, of course.)

Individual awards still up for grabs

We spent most of the season focused on the MVP odds, but that’s one of six awards still there for the taking with one week to go — and it’s the least “there for the taking” of the six. Here’s where things stand:

MVP: Aaron Rodgers’ best price is -400, Tom Brady’s is +600, and you can ignore everyone else. Rodgers is likely to sit out Week 18, while Brady has a chance to pad his stats. But the stats probably won’t matter. Brady can only prevail if sentimentality carries the day, persuading voters to consider age and/or vaccination obfuscation before checking that box.

Comeback Player of the Year: This is down to Dak Prescott (-130 at FanDuel) and Joe Burrow (now +110 at DraftKings, after sitting at +175 at BetMGM on Monday), two QBs who bounced back from major leg injuries to lead their teams to division titles.

Defensive Player of the Year: This was a tossup between T.J. Watt and Micah Parsons, but then Watt went and sacked Baker Mayfield four times on Monday night and now he’s -390 and the Cowboys rookie is +400.

Offensive Player of the Year: At every book posting this one, Jonathan Taylor is -110 and Cooper Kupp is -110. And they both figure to go all out in Week 18.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Funny what a 266-yard, 3-TD game can do to an awards race. Mac Jones had this almost locked up entering Week 17, but now he’s +195 at FanDuel and Ja’Marr Chase is -222 at Betfred. A bet on Mac would be a bet on quarterback bias from voters and on him having a huge Week 18 while the Bengals likely ease up.

Coach of the Year: This has become a three-man race, with the Packers’ Matt LeFleur and Bengals’ Zak Taylor both at +160 and the Titans’ Mike Vrabel at +350. Vrabel is one win away from snagging the AFC’s top seed with an injury-ravaged roster. Unless the oddsmakers know something we don’t about the voters’ mindset, Vrable is the value bet.

Gadget plays

  • It’s time for the final check-in on the five-team division-winner parlay (Bills, Titans, Cowboys, Packers, Bucs) that we first proposed 13 weeks ago. We initially found it at +246, and now, unless the Bills lose to the Jets and Pats beat the Dolphins, it’s going to cash. Most sportsbooks list Buffalo at -2000 to win the AFC East, while BetMGM has them all the way up at -2500. (Related: I may have made this bet 13 weeks ago, then panicked and hit the “cash out” button four weeks ago after the Bills fell to 7-6 and trailed the Pats by 2 games. I don’t want to talk about it.)
  • The Steelers have been a strong second-half bet — at least in the second half of the season. Up through their miserable tie with Detroit, they were 2-6-1 in second halves of games this season. But since then, they’ve gone 5-2 in second halves. DraftKings has them at a tantalizing +155 to outscore the Ravens in the second half Sunday. But be warned that a second-half tie gets graded as a loser, not a push.
  • It looks like points will be hard to come by in Week 18. Only two games have totals over 45: Cardinals-Seahawks (48) and Raiders-Chargers (49.5). The lowest is the 38.5 in Giants vs. WFT, as this division ends the season justifying in a literal sense its “NFC Least” nickname.

Photo: Robert Hanashiro/USA TODAY

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