Lubin vs. Fundora: Rare Fight That Opened At Even Money Highlights Big Boxing Weekend

Aging star Golovkin, rising star Garcia also in action as heavy favorites
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Eric is a veteran writer, editor, and podcaster in the sports and gaming industries. He was the editor-in-chief of the poker magazine All In for nearly a decade, is the author of the book The Moneymaker Effect, and has contributed to such outlets as ESPN.com, Grantland.com, and Playboy. Contact Eric at [email protected].

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While UFC 273 on Saturday night is certain to generate more coverage and conversation than any other combat sports action this weekend, it’s boxing that is providing sports bettors with the most even-money main event in either a ring or cage.

In fact, the 154-pound bout between Erickson Lubin and Sebastian Fundora, which headlines a Showtime Championship Boxing card from Virgin Hotels in Las Vegas, was dead even on the odds boards until the line started moving a few days before the fight. DraftKings Sportsbook opened Lubin-Fundora several weeks ago at -110 on both sides — a sighting as rare in boxing as a double knockdown or sensible scorecard — before shifting Lubin to the role of small favorite.

As of Friday morning, the odds on Lubin to win ranged from -140 at BetMGM, to -143 at Barstool Sportsbook and other Kambi-connected sites, to -145 at DraftKings, to -167 at FOX Bet. If you want to wager on Fundora, you can get slightly plus-money at all sportsbooks taking bets on the fight, with a high return of +120 at both BetMGM and DK.

The method-of-victory markets spotlight how truly unpredictable this matchup is. The best prices available are:

  • Lubin by KO/TKO/DQ: +230 (FOX Bet)
  • Lubin by decision/technical decision: +240 (FOX Bet, Kambi)
  • Fundora by KO/TKO/DQ: +320 (FOX Bet)
  • Fundora by decision/technical decision: +360 (FOX Bet)

It’s exceedingly rare to find a fight in which none of those four outcomes are priced below +200. And FOX Bet has a draw at just +1300, as low as you’ll ever see that number for a 12-round bout. (BetMGM has a more customer-friendly +1600 price on the draw, which is still lower than how the vast majority of all 12-rounders are priced.)

Lubin vs. Fundora isn’t -110 both ways anymore, but it’s not that far from true coin-flip territory.

Looking for thin value

If you’ve never seen Lubin fight, well, picture your typical quick-fisted, technically sound southpaw boxer.

If you’ve never seen Fundora fight, well, picture something you’ve never seen before and may never see again.

Fundora is also a southpaw, but that’s where his similarities with Lubin end. “The Towering Inferno” is built like Chet Holmgren at the end of a juice cleanse, but rather than use the jab-and-grab strategy you might expect from a man who stands 6-foot-5½ and weighs 154 pounds (and insists he could make 147), he loves swapping shots on the inside.

“He’s a tall statue of a guy, but skills pay the bills,” the 26-year-old Lubin, whose record stands at 24-1 (17 KOs), said at Thursday’s final press conference promoting the fight. “We go into camp and we draw up a game plan and then we execute on fight night. He’s a good fighter who comes in shape, but my skills will be the difference.”

Enough boxing bettors seem to agree with the sentiment to have inched the line in Lubin’s direction. But Fundora, who’s undefeated at 18-0-1 (12 KOs), has different expectations.

“I trust my power,” the 24-year-old said. “If it goes to the decision, that’s great, but if the knockout presents itself, I’m going to be ready to take advantage of it. The past five fights I’ve had were all hard fights. I gave Sergio Garcia his first loss and I’m planning on giving Erickson Lubin his second defeat.”

GGG, KingRy, and undercard action

The televised undercard leading up to Lubin-Fundora features a pair of fights that are almost as competitive on paper as the main event.

Sergio Garcia, fresh off his decision loss to Fundora in December, is between a -286 (FOX Bet) and -250 (DraftKings) favorite over former titleholder Tony Harrison, an underdog ranging from +180 (FOX Bet) to +200 (DK, Kambi). And opening the broadcast, Bryant Perrella is a -400 (FOX Bet) to -310 (DraftKings) fave over unbeaten but untested Kevin Salgado Zambrano, who’s priced from +225 (Kambi) to +240 (DraftKings). In some sports, a -310 favorite vs. a -240 ‘dog qualifies as a mismatch, but not in boxing — as evidenced by the prices on this weekend’s other notable bouts.

In Saitama, Japan, streaming in the U.S. on DAZN early Saturday morning, future Hall of Famer Gennady “GGG” Golovkin returns to the ring one day after turning 40 to take on relatively one-dimensional Ryota Murata. Golovkin, who some believe deserves to be 2-0 vs. Canelo Alvarez but is instead 0-1-1 (I was ringside for both outstanding fights and happened to score them both 114-114), has undoubtedly slipped from his peak but is nevertheless a solid favorite in this contest that, if he prevails, positions him for a planned third fight with Alvarez in September.

FanDuel has the most lopsided price on Golovkin at -750, but he’s a much more affordable -450 at BetMGM. If you’re feeling the upset, Murata is +450 at FanDuel. For GGG to win specifically by knockout — as he’s done 36 times in 41 victories — FOX Bet has the best price at -133, while FanDuel offers the highest return on a Golovkin decision win at +270.

The mismatch of the weekend, though — at least on paper — streams in the evening on DAZN, from the Alamodome in San Antonio. Social media superstar Ryan “KingRy” Garcia, he of the 8.7 million Instagram followers, fights for the first time in 15 months after going public with his mental health struggles. His opponent is Emmanuel Tagoe, a sturdy veteran from Ghana who has won 32 in a row since dropping his pro debut, but has never faced an opponent close to Garcia’s talent level.

How overwhelming a favorite is Garcia? FOX Bet has him at -5000, while pricing Tagoe at +800 — an absolutely outrageous gap. That +800 on Tagoe is industry standard, as he ranges from +700 at Caesars to +920 at FanDuel. But Garcia backers can do a lot better than FOX Bet’s -5000. He’s -2000 at Kambi books, -1800 at FanDuel, -1600 at BetMGM and DraftKings, and -1100 at Caesars.

But even at the best possible price, betting $1100 for every $100 you’d win is unattractive to most gamblers. The chance to bet $110 to win $100 on this sport doesn’t come along often, unfortunately.

Photo: Ryan Hafey/Premier Boxing Champions

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