Manchester City Heavy Favorite To Win Champions League

Led by Erling Haaland, City will try to win its first Champions League title in club history
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Chris Altruda was a sportswriter with ESPN, The Associated Press, and STATS for more than two decades before joining Better Collective in 2019. When not crunching iGaming and casino revenue figures, he is usually listening to Iron Maiden or exploring Chicago neighborhoods. His Twitter handle is @AlTruda73 and can be reached via email at [email protected]

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Manchester City, looking to complete a rare treble in English football history, is a strong favorite to finish the job Saturday when it faces Inter Milan in the UEFA Champions League final in Istanbul.

City remained on course by turning back derby rival Manchester United 2-1 in the FA Cup final at Wembley Stadium in London last Saturday. Ilkay Gundogan’s brace, which included the fastest FA Cup final goal coming 13 seconds into the match, on either side of halftime provided another piece of silverware to Pep Guardiola’s ever-growing collection alongside his fifth Premier League title.

The Sky Blues are looking to join United as the only English teams to win the domestic league, FA Cup, and Champions League in the Premier League era, something their eternal rivals accomplished to great fanfare in 1999. Manchester City has a domestic treble to its credit, having won the Premier League, League Cup, and FA Cup in 2019 while being bounced in the quarterfinals of the Champions League by Tottenham Hotspur.

This is Guardiola’s second trip to the Champions League final with Manchester City, having lost the 2021 final 1-0 to Chelsea. The Spaniard lifted “Ol’ Big Ears” with Barcelona in 2009 and 2011, but he failed to reach the last match while at Bayern Munich prior to his arrival on the blue side of Manchester in 2016. The Champions League trophy has been desperately sought as a stamp of global legitimacy in the football world at City since Shiekh Mansour bought the club in 2008, ushering in the club’s unprecedented run of success.

Inter Milan has won this competition thrice, with the last victory coming in 2010 after claiming the European Cup in 1964 and 1965. The Nerazzurri defeated Guardiola’s Barca side in the semifinals en route to that title, and this is their first finals appearance since toppling Bayern Munich 2-0 that year.

Istanbul is hosting for the second time, with the previous match in 2005 famously known as “The Miracle of Istanbul.” Liverpool roared back from a 3-0 halftime deficit against AC Milan, scoring three goals in a six-minute span and eventually winning on penalties for its fifth European title.

Scouting Manchester City

Guardiola’s side has been in impeccable form since early February, with the lone loss in 27 matches across all competitions (21-5-1) a meaningless 1-0 defeat at Brentford on the final day of the Premier League season. The longest odds for City to win in 90 minutes as of 9:30 a.m. ET on Friday could be found at DraftKings at -195, with FanDuel (-210), Hard Rock (-210) and Betway (-211) giving chase.

Manchester City burnished its Champions League credentials in impressive fashion last month, swatting aside 2022 champion Real Madrid 5-1 on aggregate after a 4-0 thrashing of the 14-time European winner at the Etihad in the second leg May 17. City has scored 31 goals in their 12 top-tier continental matches while conceding only five.

The offense is led by Erling Haaland, who rewrote the Premier League goal-scoring record books in his first season following his arrival from Borussia Dortmund. The 22-year-old Norway international scored 36 goals in 35 league matches — notching four hat tricks and finishing with nine multigoal games — and added another 12  in 10 Champions League starts as part of his 52-goal haul for the club.

Oddsmakers are rightfully respectful of his goal-scoring nous, with the Kambi platform powering Barstool Sportsbook and BetRivers leading the way at -130, followed by FanDuel at -135. Those thinking Haaland can grab the first goal of the match are best served going to PointsBet, which is offering +240 for him to make it 1-0 City.

One interesting market to consider for Haaland is the over for 1.5 and 2.5 shots on goal. PointsBet has the best play at over 1.5 at -115, followed by Kambi at -124, and FanDuel and BetMGM at -125. It jumps notably taking the over for 2.5 shots, which he did four times in Champions League action, with FanDuel offering +270 and BetMGM +240.

The Cityzens, though, are more than a one-man show, as six players have at least 11 goals in all competitions. Julian Alvarez is second on the team with 17 goals, but his expected status as a substitute may diminish his value in taking a flyer on an anytime goal. Kambi’s platform has him at +185, well above the next-best offering coming from PointsBet at +165.

Wingers Phil Foden and Riyad Mahrez each have found the back of the net 15 times, and oddsmakers see little separating the pair as potential goal-scorers. Foden’s best play is +310 at BetRivers and Barstool, while Mahrez can be had at +285 at Barstool and BetRivers, as well as +280 at PointsBet.

Gundogan’s brace at Wembley puts him in the conversation for an anytime goal, as the German international has 11 to his credit. FanDuel has him at +360, edging ahead of PointsBet (+350), though the latter is offering +1000 to FanDuel’s +950 for him to be first goal-scorer again.

Talk of Manchester City’s offense would not be complete without Kevin De Bruyne, who pulls the strings of Guardiola’s offense. The Belgium international has a whopping 28 assists in 48 matches on the season, including six in 685 minutes of Champions League play, making the +190 offering for an assist at BetRivers and Barstool worth ruminating.

One exotic team offering to ponder, given City’s prolific offense, is for them to score in both halves. FanDuel has the best play at +128, though Hard Rock and WynnBET are close behind at +125 and +120, respectively.

Scouting Inter Milan

Inter advanced to the final with a clinical 3-0 aggregate victory over derby rival AC Milan. After a 2-0 victory as the away team in the first-leg semifinal, Lautaro Martinez’s second-half goal kept Simone Inzaghi’s side on track for a potential cup treble, having already lifted the Supercoppa Italiana and Coppa Italia trophies.

Like Manchester City, Inter arrives in Istanbul in strong form, with 11 wins and one draw from their last 13 matches spanning all competitions. The Nerazzurri’s doldrums in late February and March, however, proved costly in domestic play, as they finished 18 points adrift of champion Napoli and in third place.

Martinez, though, was a consistent bright spot, with team highs of 28 goals and 10 assists that bracketed his title-winning turn at the World Cup with Argentina last winter. Oddsmakers consider him Inter’s top threat for an anytime goal in this contest, with the best play for an anytime goal the +400 found at PointsBet and +350 at Kambi.

Those with a sentimental streak can scratch that itch contemplating Edin Dzeko scoring against his former club. The 37-year-old striker, who played for Manchester City from 2010-15 and won a pair of Premier League titles, had four goals in Champions League play and is a +480 option to bulge the net at BetRivers and Barstool.

Lurking if Dzeko misfires up front is Romelu Lukaku, who matched Dzeko with 14 goals in all competitions. The Belgium international and Chelsea loanee scored three times in seven Champions League appearances off the bench for the Nerazzurri and has a wider range of offerings than his Bosnian teammate. Lukaku is available at +430 at FanDuel, while WynnBET is bullish on his chances at +300.

Inzaghi is sweating the fitness of playmaker Henrikh Mkhitaryan, who suffered a thigh injury in the second-leg victory over AC Milan. If Mkhitaryan is unable to go, Marcelo Brozovic may be consigned to a reserve role.

Overall match markets

For those who feel an Inter upset in 90 minutes is in the offing, WynnBET is the place to go with +650 listings, while PointsBet is relatively close at +600. For those thinking the match will not be settled in 90 minutes and merely want a winner via extra time or penalties, DraftKings has the “best” offering for City at -400, while PointsBet is tops for Inter at +375.

Oddsmakers are expecting goals, with the best play for over 2.5 goals found at FanDuel (-134), closely followed by Caesars and Hard Rock (both -135). Those thinking Inter Milan will continue to be stingy — Inter has five clean sheets in the knockout rounds — will find the +110 at multiple books the best offering.

The play for both teams to score has one plus-money play available at PointsBet (+110) and one at even money via DraftKings. The best play on the no option is -110 found at FanDuel, WynnBET, and Betfred.

Photo: Michael Regan/Getty Images

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