NCAA Tournament Sleeper Pick: The Texas Tech Red Raiders

Still solid defensively, Texas Tech offers potential value as a Final Four futures pick
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Chris Altruda was a sportswriter with ESPN, The Associated Press, and STATS for more than two decades before joining Better Collective in 2019. When not crunching iGaming and casino revenue figures, he is usually listening to Iron Maiden or exploring Chicago neighborhoods. His Twitter handle is @AlTruda73 and can be reached via email at [email protected]

Texas Tech NCAA Tourney Sleeper
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Welcome to the second annual quest to find sports betting value on a sleeper Final Four play and/or potential NCAA Tournament champion not named Baylor or Gonzaga.

Though last year’s two finalists have less separation from the pack than last March, when they steamrolled nearly everyone in their path to Indianapolis, no one would be truly surprised if a rematch in New Orleans took place on the first Monday in April.

Of the five teams highlighted last season, two outperformed their seeds in Houston and USC and two others played to their seeds in Alabama and Florida State. And Virginia? Well, no one is perfect, but that quintet included a Final Four team and two regional finalists.

There is a chance one or more of those teams could again grab the spotlight as a value pick. That is because the tier of teams appearing capable of picking off No. 2 Gonzaga and fourth-ranked Baylor in a one-off setting in March is notably larger. To wit, Auburn is currently the top-ranked team in the nation and Baylor did not get any first-place votes in either of the most recent Top 25 polls.

Kicking things off this time is Texas Tech, which has shown surprisingly little fall-off following Chris Beard’s departure to Austin to coach Big 12 rival Texas. The 13th-ranked Red Raiders gave No. 5 Kansas everything it could handle Monday night at Phog Allen before losing 94-91 in double overtime, serving notice they can vie for the conference title and plenty more.

Defensive identity still key to Red Raiders DNA

First-year coach Mark Adams served as Beard’s assistant at both Texas Tech and Arkansas-Little Rock before moving over one chair for his first head coaching job in nearly a decade. He has continued the defense-first mentality that has been the foundation of the Red Raiders’ rise to national prominence over the past decade.

Monday night’s 50-minute barn-burner aside, Texas Tech has plenty of defensive chops. Its 38.2 defensive field goal percentage ranks 15th nationally, and the 60.8 points per game allowed is good for 20th. The Red Raiders are also 23rd with a plus-7.2 rebound margin per contest. Their defensive numbers are comparable with the 2019 team that reached the Final Four, but the rebound margin is notably better.

For the advanced metrics crowd, the Red Raiders rank fourth in defensive efficiency in KenPom rankings, holding opponents to 87.4 points per 100 possessions. They are forcing opponents into turnovers in nearly one out of every four possessions at 23.7% and have limited teams to 44.4% shooting from inside the arc. Texas Tech is also a connected unit defensively, as 12.2% of its forced turnovers are not from steals, which ranks 14th among Division I teams.

On the offensive side, the Red Raiders lack the elite scorer and playmaker Jarrett Culver was in 2019, but the silver lining of the loss at Kansas could be that Bryson Williams emerged as Texas Tech’s go-to player in crunch time. Williams, at his third school after two-year stints at Fresno State and Texas El-Paso, scored a season-high 33 points on 14-of-19 shooting.

Williams, who has always been a consistent scorer with 1,900 points over his career, had eight of his points versus Kansas in the two extra periods. He also has averaged 15.1 points in seven games against AP Top 25 teams this season, reaching double figures in the last five.

Davion Warren and Kevin Obanor are solid secondary offensive options averaging in double figures, but junior guard Terrance Shannon Jr. may be the X factor who can help Texas Tech make another Final Four run. Shannon missed 10 games this season due to a back injury and is just now playing his way back into rhythm.

He had a season-high 23 points against West Virginia Saturday but went cold in Kansas, finishing with five points on 1-of-10 shooting. Shannon averaged 16.8 points while shooting 36.7% from 3-point range in Texas Tech’s first five games, so there is reason for optimism he can find a groove to help space the floor more for Williams and his inside-out game.

Points to ponder against Texas Tech

Texas Tech checks off most of the boxes among teams capable of cutting down the nets in a region. It can hang its hat on going to Waco and dealing NCAA Tournament champ Baylor its first loss of the season. It also has a home win over Kansas and neutral-court victory over Tennessee to its credit, which for the selection committee can help mitigate non-conference losses at Providence and to Gonzaga in Phoenix.

The Red Raiders still have one last non-conference matchup, hosting Mississippi State in the Big 12-SEC Challenge on Saturday. Depending on how the Bulldogs fare at Kentucky on Tuesday night, a victory for Texas Tech could also prove beneficial for seeding purposes come March.

The common denominator in Texas Tech’s four losses prior to Monday night was poor shooting. The Red Raiders shot under 40% in each of those and averaged 55.2 points — well off their season average of 74.8 points. The ‘Zags are the ‘Zags, so there’s no shame in that loss, but with all five defeats coming to opponents ranked 60th or better in KenPom defensive efficiency, the pattern shows good defensive teams can jam Texas Tech’s offense.

Is there a value play for the Red Raiders?

Projecting the Red Raiders to cut down the nets in New Orleans is too big an ask at this point considering the lack of a bona fide crunch-time scorer, and oddsmakers sense that with their title odds ranging from +2500 at BetRivers and WynnBET to the most common offering of +4000 found at DraftKings, PointsBet, Betway, Betfred, SI Sportsbook, and theScore Bet.

But there may not be a better time to consider grabbing Texas Tech as a Final Four option than the present, especially considering Texas Tech could play itself into national title talk by keeping pace with the Jayhawks in the challenging Big 12. Then it may be time to talk title odds with the Red Raiders.

DraftKings currently has the best Final Four return on Texas Tech at +900, followed by PointsBet (+800) and FanDuel (+750), which is solid value for a team for a potential No. 2 or No. 3 seed. The extra value comes from the Red Raiders being a team that could possibly avoid a top seed en route to the Big Easy, yet could still have better than a puncher’s chance if it has to face the No. 1 in its bracket for that Final Four spot.

Photo: Michael C. Johnson/USA TODAY 

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