It’s officially Oscars season, as the nominations for the 95th Academy Awards were announced at the crack of dawn in Hollywood.
Action has been posted on PointsBet since June, and bet365 and DraftKings were relatively quick to follow by November. Plenty has changed since then. For instance, back in June, the Ron Howard-directed Thirteen Lives was the +600 favorite for Best Picture. It quickly fell out of favor, and wasn’t even nominated for the award.
Speaking of Best Picture: It appears to be a two-flick race between Everything Everywhere All at Once as the favorite, with odds of -165 at DraftKings, and The Banshees of Inisherin, on its heels at +225.
— Everything Everywhere (@allatoncemovie) January 24, 2023
The Fabelmans — which was +125 to win Best Picture back in November — is a distant fourth, at +1100 at bet365. (As of Tuesday morning, PointsBet had taken down its Oscars odds, and other sites have yet to post them.)
If there’s one darkhorse, buzzy movie that can pull the upset, it might be the German-language remake of All Quiet on the Western Front, which got nine total nominations. The odds for that movie taking home the Best Picture Oscar are +3500 at DraftKings.
Actor, actress, and more
Best Actor is a three-man race. Brendan Fraser, for his role in The Whale, is at -163 at bet365, with Colin Farrell at +250 (for his role in Banshees), and Austin Butler — who won the Golden Globe for his portrayal of Elvis — at +333. Fraser has been the favorite all along, but Farrell and Butler have closed the gap.
Best Actress appears to be a two-woman race between Cate Blanchett for her role in Tar and Michelle Yeoh for her (literally) multidimensional role in Everything Everywhere All at Once. Blanchett is -175 at DraftKings, Yeoh +133 at bet365.
If there is one slam dunk on the board, it’s in the Best Supporting Actor category, where Ke Huy Quan is -1000 at bet365 for his role in Everything Everywhere All at Once.
Best Supporting Actress also has a heavy favorite: Angela Bassett for her role in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. She’s -250 at bet365, with Kerry Condon (Banshees) at +225.
But perhaps the biggest surprise in the odds market is in the Best Director category. Steven Spielberg was considered a sure thing back in November for his mostly autobiographical The Fabelmans. He was -200 at PointsBet for much of the run-up to the nominations, but now he’s the +110 underdog at both DraftKings and bet365, with the new favorites being Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once) at -140.
One interesting wrinkle for would-be bettors right now is the dominance of Everything Everywhere All at Once at or near the top of the odds boards. Will this crowd-pleaser sweep through Oscars night, or will a little backlash creep into the minds of voters?
Time will tell, and if history is a guide, there will be plenty of movement in these odds as time gets closer, especially as other awards shows give out their iron.
For instance, last year, CODA was at +2000 to win Best Picture with a month to go. It then won the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) award for “Outstanding Cast,” and the odds started shrinking.
The Oscars will be announced March 12, and in the run-up the SAG awards are on Feb. 27, the Director’s Guild hands out its trophies on Feb. 18, and the BAFTAs — England’s Oscars, basically — are on Feb. 19. What happens at these award shows will have a profound effect on the Oscars odds, so expect changes as we get closer to Oscars night.
Photo: Dan MacMedan/USA TODAY