Perhaps the most surprising thing about Sunday’s Miami Grand Prix is that it’s the first time Formula 1 has come to South Florida. To that end, perhaps the least surprising thing about the race is that it’s sponsored by Crypto.com.
Miami oozes the sort of flashiness and multinational flavor that you’re more liable to find in Monte Carlo than any American city, making it the perfect U.S. port of call for the splashy sports car circuit. Expect a crowded celebrity flightpath this weekend between Louisville — where the Kentucky Derby will be held on Saturday — and the private airstrips nestled between the sugarcane fields of the extreme Southeast.
And while Americans aren’t as familiar with F1 as NASCAR, the event’s presence in the Sunshine State could be as big as the Super Bowl from an economic standpoint. It also holds significance for racing fans and bettors.
“The race is obviously big for the future of F1 in America, but it is also a big step for the future of F1 betting in America,” PointsBet’s trading team wrote in an email to US Bets. “In the last year alone, turnover on F1 has doubled. The race will hopefully grab the attention of [sports] bettors that were not F1 fans prior.”
F1 drivers love American food 😋#MiamiGP #F1 pic.twitter.com/z1yYtgGqdN
— Formula 1 (@F1) May 4, 2022
Will experience trump mechanics?
F1 is four races into its 22-race season and, for the first time in nearly a decade, neither Mercedes’ team nor its drivers occupy any of the top two spots in the constructor or driver standings. There were preseason rumblings that Mercedes’ car wasn’t quite up to snuff, while Ferrari was poised for serious contention — and that’s exactly how things have played out thus far, with Charles Leclerc (Ferrari), Max Verstappen (Red Bull), and their respective teams duking it out atop the leaderboard.
Fresh off a victory two weeks ago in Italy, Verstappen is the consensus favorite to win Miami’s Grand Prix — which will be run on a track built around Hard Rock Stadium, complete with a faux “marina” that’s been drawing snickers. His odds to prevail on Sunday range from even at most major sportsbooks to +110 at BetMGM and PointsBet.
Leclerc — who, like Verstappen, has two wins on the season — is the consensus second pick, with odds ranging from +120 (DraftKings, SuperBook) to +140 (BetMGM, Caesars, PointsBet). Yet when it comes to the futures pool, mobile sportsbooks are split on which of the two will win the drivers’ championship. Leclerc leads Verstappen by a healthy 27-point margin in the driver standings, primarily because when Verstappen hasn’t won, he hasn’t finished, costing him precious opportunities to score points.
Caesars (-110) has Verstappen favored over Leclerc (+105) to repeat as the top driver, while BetMGM (+100), DraftKings (-105), and the SuperBook (-110) have the two on level ground. PointsBet currently has Leclerc (-110) favored to top Verstappen (+105) for the drivers’ championship, but the sportsbook isn’t shy about expressing its flexibility in that regard.
“In the end, we believe Verstappen’s experience will come up most valuable, but we do anticipate it to be a battle,” said PointsBet’s trading team.
Hamilton’s slide ‘a wild sight’
Every other driver outside of this dynamic duo is a longshot to win the drivers’ championship, with PointsBet offering far shorter odds on the likes of George Russell (Mercedes), Carlos Sainz (Ferrari), Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes), and Sergio Perez (Red Bull).
Hamilton, one of the most decorated drivers in F1 history, opened the season with odds in the +250 range, second only to Verstappen. Now the shortest odds on him coming back from seventh in the point standings to claim a record-breaking eighth individual title are 25/1 at PointsBet, with the rest of the books pegging him as 40/1. Hamilton’s odds to win in Miami on Sunday are similar, with the SuperBook doubling the standard rate to 80/1.
“It is surely a wild sight to see Hamilton this far down the odds board and just cracking the Top 5,” said the PointsBet traders, who added that “there’s some anticipation that Hamilton may struggle” on the Miami course.
In fact, Hamilton’s situation has grown so dire that the PointsBet traders feel that he has already been surpassed as Mercedes’ top driver by Russell, who is fourth in the overall point standings in his first year with the team.
The Miami course, of course, is brand new for all parties involved, which could make a longshot a more attractive play than for more established F1 events. To that end, PointsBet’s desk touts Fernando Alonso (Alpine) and Valtteri Bottas (Alfa Romeo) — both at 200/1 to win, but with odds ranging from 11/1 to 15/1 to finish in the Top 3 — as “two to keep an eye on.”
Photo: Jerome Miron/USA TODAY
